Leth's a bit more immediately debilitating than a lot of the other affs, but any time I double up on it, I'm going to be losing affliction pressure, and the chance is usually going to be 50/50, and eventually 33/67. If I instead pick any other instill that I know they don't have, I can guarantee that I'm at least maintaining affs, and I can just avoid picking one that bloodleech hit. This gets me to cadmus faster, but I'm fully committed to pretty much ignoring hindering their offense.
How big a deal is lethargy? Especially since I ideally am trying to rush my kill in under 30s? I currently don't chance the 50/50, but if it's 33/67 I'll usually go for instilling it because of better odds, or if I'm most of the way through my instills and hence it's more likely that it was cured at some point - though by this point I can probably already cadmus, or pick a 100% aff and cadmus.
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If my time to kill attempt is faster than their time to kill attempt, and there's no increase in my kill success % based off of if I lethargy them or not, then slowing their kill attempt is of less value than increasing the speed at which I get to my kill attempt.
My assumed use cases for keeping lethargy stuck would be if there's some gain in my kill success % based off of lethargy causing them to be too slow to execute a particular defense, but the particular defense in this case just seems to be run. Alternatively, if their kill attempt is faster than my kill attempt, and only lethargy will put my kill attempt first.
Since I don't think either of these are what I'd encounter off the top of my head, it seems like lethargy is nice, but doesn't really matter. I want to figure out in what contexts I am wrong.
I'm curious for cases where stuck lethargy is significant because it puts Occie kill attempt from being slower to faster than the opposing one, or enables the Occie kill where it wouldn't be possible without it. I mentally shortlisted Alchie and DW. If neither of these conditions are true vs. a class, then it doesn't really matter if lethargy is on them or not, the focus should be on preventing them from running.
@Kiet/@Ryzeth - I've been thinking of picking up ED, but couldn't recall what I currently had, just that I suspected I had a slot free. By looking for cases where lethargy being stuck is the difference between winnable vs. unwinnable, it provides justification for getting ED - if there are no situations (or extremely limited) situations where it matters, then ED is a net malus because of the tree thingy. And in that case, I could code up thirft-shop reverse-bloodleech for figuring out lethargy stuck-ness.
Re: winnable vs. unwinnable, I wouldn't really say it swings either side too heavily. If you're having trouble sticking afflictions, then taking ED will help you solve that issue a fair bit... If you're not, then it'll help you stick lethargy (or any affliction, really. Leth+clumsy is aids for most classes) even better.
It's not a case of winnable vs. unwinnable, it's a case of "will this help me more than the minor increase to tree bal hurts me" and the answer is quite a clear 'yes' to that.